COLUMNS

More snowbirds are migrating permanently

Christine Robinson

The northerners are coming. I know, snowbird season is over, but they are still coming and coming fast. 

They are fleeing the high taxes, high regulation, and the uncertain business environment of northern states and coming here in droves. How fast do you ask? Some estimates put it at 1,000 people are coming to Florida every day. 

Bloomberg News recently measured the economic impact on states as a result of the movement of people in terms of growth of adjusted gross income. Using IRS and Census data, they looked at 2016 numbers, and the results are not surprising to those of us who live in Florida. 

It also puts into perspective that we have good problems and that those who are losing income in this economy are in trouble. 

Bloomberg reports that there are about 35 million people who move in the United States every year. 

Florida had the greatest jump in adjusted gross income in Bloomberg’s study. Connecticut and New York were among the biggest losers. 

So what does this movement of population and growth mean for Florida? 

According to Bloomberg, it means Florida is “reeling in $17.2 billion more than it lost, about seven times the amounts netted by each of the runner-ups, Texas, Washington, and South Carolina.”

The bulk of that adjusted gross income gain is coming from New York, Illinois and New Jersey. 

Bloomberg attributes our lack of income tax and the more recent changes in federal tax laws as helping. 

But there is even better news than just a higher adjusted gross income. Florida is also one of the leaders in new business creation, which Bloomberg also correlated with the positive income migration. 

To those naysayers who say that this matters little to our quality of life here and want to stop the population growth, one need only look to the states that are losing their population to understand that the situation is grave for them, and positive for us. 

In February, the Chicago Tribune wrote an editorial about this situation, which they viewed as a crisis. They quoted a fellow exodus state governor, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, in their headline calling the exodus “as serious as a heart attack.” They went on to warn, “And as Illinois’ population continues to shrink, a higher tax burden falls on everyone who remains.” 

So why is this happening? Cuomo last year cited the weather, and earlier this year, he blamed the federal government’s tax structure. 

The Reason Foundation was much more analytical about it and looked at several studies from the Cato Institute. They found that state tax levels and net migration are highly correlated. This isn’t shocking to those of us who live here. 

Finally, in March of this year, Gov. Cuomo began to accept the New York State government’s role in the problem and the importance of predictability in economics. He wanted to make a property tax cap permanent. According to the Democrat Chronicle, he said, “’You have to make the tax cap permanent — period,’ Cuomo said. ‘You have to offer New Yorkers some stability in this environment.’” 

So northern high tax, high regulation, and unstable business environment states are beginning to catch on to what Florida quickly learned during the recession: Don’t take your growth and population for granted, make sure you are remaining competitive and predictable, and remember that residents can choose the environment in which they want to live and do business. 

Our state is doing a good job trying to remain competitive. As our local governments finish their budgeting and decision-making on land use and development regulations, they too should remind themselves that people have a choice, and they should remember the grave economic situation we were in during the population loss of the great recession. Let’s make sure we don’t repeat it. 

Christine Robinson is executive director of the Argus Foundation and was on the Sarasota County Commission from 2010 to 2016. Contact her at christine@argusfoundation.org.